Tropical cyclone track prediction using a large-area WRF model at the Hong Kong Observatory

作者：Kai-Kwong Hon

摘要：Tropical cyclone(TC)track predictions of the 10-km resolution WRF(provisionally named"AAMC-WRF")of the Hong Kong Observatory(HKO),spanning(20°S-60°N,45°E-160°E)is studied for a 1-year period from April 2018 to Mar 2019.Real-time predictions,up to 4 times a day and T+48 h ahead,are verified against operational analysis positions of HKO for storms over the South China Sea(SCS)and Western North Pacific(WNP);and of the New Delhi Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre(RSMC)for storms over the North Indian Ocean basin(NIO;including the Bay of Bengal).Out of 21 named TCs over SCS and WNP,mean positional errors of the AAMC-WRF are 33 km(T+0),63 km(T+24),and 107 km(T+48)based on 209,178 and 142 forecasts.The AAMC-WRF outperformed Meso-NHM,also run in real-time at HKO,with mean error reduction up to 34 km or 24%.Mean positional errors for 13 NIO storms are 38 km(T+0),69 km(T+24)and 107 km(T+48)based on 183,131 and 85 forecasts.This is the first study in which TC predictions of a regional model are simultaneously examined over the SCS,WNP and NIO basins through real-time experiments.

發文機構：Hong Kong Observatory

關鍵詞：redstormSCSTropicalcyclonetrackpredictionUSINGaLARGE-AREAWRFmodelattheHongKongOBSERVATORYWRF

分類號： P444[天文地球—大氣科學及氣象學]P456.7