RECENT ADVANCES IN RESEARCH AND FORECASTING OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL

作者：KEVIN CHEUNG,ZIFENG YU,RUSSELL LELSBERRY,MICHAEL BELL,HAIYAN JIANG,TSZ CHEUNG LEE,KUO-CHEN LU,YOSHINORI OIKAWA,LIANGBO QI,ROBERT FROGERS,KAZUHISA TSUBOKI

摘要：In preparation for the Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes(IWTCLP-IV), a summary of recent research studies and the forecasting challenges of tropical cyclone(TC) rainfall has been prepared. The extreme rainfall accumulations in Hurricane Harvey(2017) near Houston, Texas and Typhoon Damrey(2017) in southern Vietnam are examples of the TC rainfall forecasting challenges. Some progress is being made in understanding the internal rainfall dynamics via case studies. Environmental effects such as vertical wind shear and terrain-induced rainfall have been studied, as well as the rainfall relationships with TC intensity and structure. Numerical model predictions of TC-related rainfall have been improved via data assimilation, microphysics representation, improved resolution, and ensemble quantitative precipitation forecast techniques. Some attempts have been made to improve the verification techniques as well. A basic forecast challenge for TC-related rainfall is monitoring the existing rainfall distribution via satellite or coastal radars, or from over-land rain gauges. Forecasters also need assistance in understanding how seemingly similar landfall locations relative to the TC experience different rainfall distributions. In addition, forecasters must cope with anomalous TC activity and landfall distributions in response to various environmental effects.

發文機構：Macquarie University Shanghai Typhoon Institute University of Colorado Colorado Springs Colorado State University Florida International University Hong Kong Observatory Pacifi c Science Association RSMC Tokyo/Japan Meteorological Agency Shanghai Meteorological Service NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division Nagoya University

關鍵詞：TROPICALCYCLONELANDFALLRAINFALLnowcastFORECASTverification

分類號： P457.6[天文地球—大氣科學及氣象學]